During July, Russian forces occupied more territory than was liberated by the Defense Forces, however, DeepState considers the complete capture of the Donetsk region by 2026 unrealistic.
Збройні сили України / © Associated Press
Throughout July, Russian troops seized more territory than the Ukrainian Defense Forces liberated. According to analysts’ calculations, the net increase in occupied territory was approximately 88 square kilometers.
This was reported by analysts from the DeepState project.
Why the Previous Figure Changed
Initially, the difference between the advancement of Russian troops and the successes of Ukrainian forces was 36 square kilometers. However, after refining the data, analysts adjusted the area of territories previously considered occupied.
The overall figure was reduced by 52 square kilometers: 25 square kilometers were attributed to May, and another 27 to June. Considering these adjustments, the net increase in territory occupied by Russia in July was 88 square kilometers.
At the same time, the Defense Forces also achieved local successes during the month, but the area of liberated territories was significantly smaller than the Russian advances.
DeepState explained that information about some successful operations by Ukrainian military personnel is published with a delay – after their completion and the opportunity to safely disclose details arises.
Where the Situation Remains Most Difficult
According to analysts’ assessments, the situation near Rodynske and Kostiantynivka, as well as in the directions towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, remains the most tense.
Meanwhile, DeepState believes that the task of Russian troops to completely occupy the Donetsk region by 2026 is unrealistic. At the current pace of advancement, according to analysts, Russia will not be able to achieve this goal even within 2027.
The future situation will depend, among other things, on whether Russia will conduct a new wave of mobilization in the autumn and whether it will involve additional forces from North Korea.
Analysts also noted that the role of infantry on the battlefield has significantly decreased. Due to the active use of drones, the repetition of rapid Russian breakthroughs, similar to the offensive in the Kurakhove or Selidove areas, is becoming less likely.
According to their assessment, under the current conditions, battles for individual sectors can last for several months, and the Russian command is forced to simultaneously reduce the scale of offensive actions in other directions.
Situation at the Front: Latest News
Russia may attempt to open a new front of hostilities against Ukraine after the State Duma elections in the Russian Federation. This opinion was expressed by People’s Deputy Roman Kostenko.
According to him, a northern offensive, particularly in the Chernihiv direction, could be especially dangerous for Ukraine, as could the potential involvement of Belarusian territory.
“If they open the Chernihiv front, and God forbid, they also reach an agreement with Belarus, then the forces and assets we currently have will be far from sufficient. In such a case, Ukraine will have to seek additional resources for defense,” Kostenko stated.
Earlier, The Wall Street Journal wrote that for four years, Russia expected to exhaust Ukraine and gain an advantage in the war by prolonging hostilities.
However, massive strikes by Ukrainian drones on Russian military and fuel-energy facilities, according to the publication, forced the Kremlin to reconsider the calculation that time is working exclusively in Russia’s favor.
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