Russia is developing military bases and expanding infrastructure along the border with Finland, preparing for a potential confrontation with NATO after the war in Ukraine ends, writes the German publication Welt.
Threat to NATO: Russia is preparing military bases near Finland / © Associated Press
Satellite images show that Russia is strengthening its military capabilities on the border with Finland. Security experts view this as preparation for the period after the war in Ukraine.
This is reported by the German publication Welt.
According to the publication, Putin may be preparing for three scenarios. Analysts note that Russian troops are still largely engaged in the aggressive war against Ukraine. However, the Kremlin is already preparing to increase its capabilities along NATO’s northeastern border after the war ends. This conclusion was reached by an investigation by several Scandinavian and Baltic media outlets, which, together with experts, analyzed satellite images of Russian activity in the region.
The images show several locations where military infrastructure is being built or expanded. One of the largest projects is the expansion of the military base in Pechenga, in the far north, on the border with Finland and Norway. Moscow intends to expand the brigade stationed there into a division, as announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense, increasing its strength from approximately 4,000 to 10,000 soldiers. As satellite images show, one square kilometer of forest has been cleared for this purpose. More than fifty buildings are currently under construction.
Near the city of Kandalaksha, at approximately the same latitude as the Finnish city of Rovaniemi, Moscow is building a new military base, which is reported to house an artillery brigade and elements of an engineering brigade, totaling about 2,000 soldiers.
A third major construction site can be observed in Novaya Vilga near Petrozavodsk. No troops have been stationed there for decades; now, a garrison may be used for the new 44th Army Corps, which Russia plans to establish in the Republic of Karelia.
“What we are observing now in the regions bordering Finland is that Russia is building infrastructure to accommodate more troops,” says Matti Pesu, a senior researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA). While the priority of the Russian armed forces remains in Ukraine, “they are ensuring the readiness of the infrastructure in case additional resources become available in the future.”
© Die Welt
Overall, experts cited in the report suggest that Russia plans to station up to 115,000 soldiers in the region – approximately the same number as during the Cold War. Currently, this number is estimated to be around 20,000.
Some observers view this move as preparation for a full-scale war with conventional armed forces. “We do not believe they are deploying them there just for show,” quotes the report from the head of Swedish intelligence, Thomas Nilsson. “It is about the ability to confront NATO in a larger conflict later.”
Nilsson and other interviewed experts consider the next three years to be “absolutely the most dangerous” as the defensive capabilities of European NATO states are still developing.
There are various theories about the exact role that the new bases along the Finnish border will play in such a worst-case scenario. Moscow already established the Leningrad Military District in 2024, after Sweden and Finland joined NATO, which has since covered the entire northwestern region along the NATO border.
This region is crucial for Russia’s military strategy: the Russian Northern Fleet is stationed on the Kola Peninsula, which is connected to the mainland by only a relatively narrow strip of land; this fleet is intended to ensure Moscow’s ability to retaliate with nuclear weapons in the event of war.
“However, Russian thinking includes the idea that defensive measures can also take place in neighboring countries. And this is where it becomes an existential issue for Finland,” says Matti Pesu.
Another possibility is that Russia is planning a diversionary maneuver for a potential attack on the Baltic states. Finland would be crucial for supporting the Baltic states in a crisis situation – if Russia ties down NATO forces on the Finnish border, it would weaken defenses elsewhere.
The Finnish government, for its part, has taken precautionary measures and, among other things, recently lifted the country’s long-standing ban on nuclear weapons. Transit and temporary storage of nuclear weapons are now permitted for defense purposes. This has elicited a sharp reaction in Russia.
Previously, the Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK, former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, stated that Ukraine would never be in NATO.
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