For the first time since the start of the war, the Russian regime has shifted from offense to self-defense. I am not referring to the front lines now. I am talking about the internal logic of actions, which resulted in an obsessive attempt to concentrate strikes, primarily on the center of Kyiv. Vadym Denysenko writes about this.
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A Theater for One Audience
This logic is based on three aspects.
1. The psychology of Vladimir Putin himself, who understands that he has been humiliated and must respond to this humiliation.
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2. The desire to please the “ultra-patriots” and a part of the military, who are increasingly becoming an opposition to Putin. For four years, they have been asking Putin to strike at the centers of decision-making. Such strikes have occurred, but the Russians still did not allow themselves to use missiles so thoughtlessly and in such quantities. Now, it seems, the decision has been made to carry out several waves of such massive attacks, even if it means accumulating the relevant reserves for several months afterward.
There is no military logic here. I repeat – this is the logic of a theater for one audience, which must greatly please him. It seems to me, although I am not a specialist here, that there cannot be more than 3-4 attacks similar to the previous one. There is simply no more resource.
Last week, Putin appealed to Ukrainian servicemen to surrender. Indirectly, this speaks to the illusions that are concentrated in his head and which are conveyed to him by the higher military leadership.
An ideal intermediate completion of such a missile operation for the Kremlin would likely be a direct hit on the Office of the President’s building, and ideally, for the US and EU to then put pressure on Ukraine to ask for peace or at least a new round of negotiations.
Once again: this is not the logic of war. This is the logic of a theater for one audience. But this logic is not about the last, final stage of the war. This is the logic of petty tactics for the next month. To be more precise – this is the logic of PR, not war. Unfortunately, a very dark PR for us. I repeat, the authors of this idea believe that after this, a turning point will come not in the war, but in the negotiations.
There is no rebellion in the Russian elites yet. Until now, they have been fussing and are still fussing among themselves for one purpose: to get approval from Putin, as the chief arbiter. Now, the number of dissatisfied with the new arbitration rules, which involve a sharp limitation of untouchables, has increased.
But Putin’s logic is that the inviolability of 30 people from his inner circle, plus the top ranks of the FSB and FSO, protects him from any coups. And there is a serious reason for this.
We have indeed approached the emergence of elite dissent. But it is definitely not here yet, and preventing it from emerging is Putin’s main task. At the same time, the West does not seem to think in terms of trying to create this very dissent. The West thinks in terms of Putin’s eternity. And this, undoubtedly, affects the Russian elites.
The column is the personal opinion of the author, the editorial staff of 24 Channel may not share it.
Джерело: www.24tv.ua