A significant portion of potential recruits may lack the motivation to fight.
Mobilization in the Russian Federation / © Associated Press
The mass replenishment of the Russian army could exacerbate problems with military motivation, increase the scale of draft evasion, and cause additional social tension in Russia.
This opinion was expressed on the air of Espreso by Bohdan Bachynskyi, editor-in-chief of the “Espreso” website.
Commenting on information from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine about Russia’s plans to mobilize up to 600,000 new recruits this year and next, Bachynskyi noted that such a large-scale army expansion could pose a serious challenge for the Kremlin.
According to him, a significant number of individuals slated for military service may lack the drive to engage in combat.
Meanwhile, if 600,000 potential recruits are distributed over approximately 15 months, it averages around 40,000 individuals per month. This figure only slightly exceeds the current recruitment rates for the Russian army.
In Bachynskyi’s view, the primary issue for the Kremlin may not be the quantity of mobilized personnel but rather their readiness to participate in the war.
“We understand that a large number of completely unmotivated individuals will be armed. And there will be a similar phenomenon to ‘self-inflicted wounds,’ but on a much larger scale, because a vast number of people will not want to fight by force,” Bachynskyi stated.
He recalled that after the announcement of partial mobilization in 2022, Russia already faced widespread draft evasion. At that time, a considerable number of Russians left the country attempting to avoid mobilization.
“When they conducted partial mobilization in ’22, they quickly ceased the process after a month because people started fleeing abroad, and mass evasion began. They saw that they could not control these processes,” the journalist said.
However, according to Bachynskyi, over the years of the war, the Kremlin has intensified its control over Russian society and may anticipate being able to manage potential discontent.
Nevertheless, a substantial increase in army numbers could still create new risks for the Russian authorities.
“Adding 20-30% more completely unmotivated individuals to the army now, who are not prepared to fight, is a great risk,” Bachynskyi emphasized.
He suggests that some of the new recruits will indeed participate in combat operations. At the same time, a significant number of mobilized individuals may resist or attempt to evade participation in the war.
“The Kremlin is taking a significant risk, and if they proceed with it, they will find themselves in a very difficult situation,” Bachynskyi concluded.
It was previously reported that the Kremlin is already preparing for “uprisings,” and security forces are being granted expanded powers ahead of new mobilization.
We previously reported that Russia plans to quickly conscript several hundred thousand Russians into the occupation army by the end of the current year and another similar number next year.
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