Discover the technologies utilized by the Russian Federation within Belarus for subversive activities.
Lukashenko and Putin
Amidst discussions about potential threats from the northern and northeastern directions, diplomat Roman Bezsmertny assessed the actual military capabilities of Belarusian self-proclaimed president Alexander Lukashenko and the Kremlin’s strategies. According to him, the Belarusian dictator cannot be trusted, as he does not control his own words and merely voices directives from the Kremlin.
He conveyed this during an interview on the program “Studio Zahid.”
However, the diplomat is convinced that Lukashenko himself lacks the strength to wage war against Ukraine. In addition to a deficit in resources, there is substantial internal opposition from society – 83 percent of Belarusians are strongly against participation in the conflict.
“Lukashenko will be indecisive, evasive, saying things, and following Kremlin orders, but he won’t dare to commit conscripts to battle because that army would disperse into the Belarusian forests faster than it would reach its deployment location,” Bezsmertny stated.
He added that the Belarusian special operations forces are few in number, lack combat experience, individual support, and adequate equipment. The heavily armed military is designed solely for suppressing its own populace and is incapable of fighting a formidable adversary like Ukraine. Bezsmertny also urged against believing the maneuvers involving border repeaters, as activating or deactivating them takes mere seconds.
The Number of Troops Russia Can Muster in the Northern Direction
Despite Minsk’s limitations, Russia can still leverage this direction. Currently, approximately 120,000 Russian military personnel are positioned from Leningrad to Ukraine’s northern borders. This contingent is not fully staffed, but the Russian Federation possesses the capacity to reinforce it.
“If we consider the troop grouping situated in this direction from Russia’s side, within a month, they could assemble a force of around 200,000 in this area. However, a month is not insignificant enough not to be noticed. It would take at least two months to form a combat-ready group from this,” the diplomat noted.
Bezsmertny emphasized that Belarus serves as a staging ground not only for attacks on Ukraine but also on the Baltic states, Scandinavia, and Central Europe. This direction remains highly perilous due to subversive operations and the deployment of extremely powerful antennas and electronic warfare systems in Kaliningrad and the Brest region, which facilitate communication with strategic bombers and submarines.
An attempt to break through from the Belarusian side towards Kyiv, Chernihiv, Rivne, or Lviv would present a significant challenge for the enemy. The Ukrainian border is reliably fortified, and in certain areas, the terrain itself is virtually impassable.
“Out of 12 crossings, 8 are currently heavily mined, so much so that birds sometimes detonate them; others are partially controlled by troops. The two that could potentially be used are completely blocked,” the diplomat concluded.
Bezsmertny summarized that advancing towards Ukraine from the north would require extraordinary courage. However, given that the Russian leadership is capable of making utterly foolish decisions, Ukrainians must be prepared for any eventuality and exercise caution.
Threat from Belarus – Latest News
It is worth recalling that on Friday, June 26th, Alexander Lukashenko visited Putin’s residence in Valdai for negotiations. As reported by The Moscow Times, the meeting between the Russian and Belarusian dictators occurred within an extremely tense atmosphere.
The preceding day, Thursday, June 25th, Lukashenko publicly requested Russian Ambassador Boris Gryzlov not to involve Belarus in the war with Ukraine, and for the first time, he openly confirmed that the Kremlin was pressuring Minsk to engage more actively in combat operations.
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