An attack on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea could open a new front and provoke Tehran’s response against Ukraine-related ships or infrastructure.
Iranian flag / © Associated Press
Ukraine’s strike on a cargo ship carrying military supplies between Iran and Russia via the Caspian Sea may signify an expansion of the conflict zone surrounding Tehran.
This is reported in a Fortune article.
President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Ukraine attacked a vessel used for transporting military cargo between Russia and Iran. He also instructed intelligence to share information with partners regarding Moscow’s assistance to Tehran.
According to Zelensky, Russia has been providing Iran with satellite imagery of Persian Gulf states and US military bases.
“There is a clear correlation between Russian satellite images of these locations and Iranian strikes – both before, in preparation for them, and after, to assess the damage,” the president wrote on X.
Iran denies involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine, although Kyiv claims Tehran supplies Moscow with drones. Iranian authorities have also urged European countries to hold Ukraine accountable for the attack.
According to the Financial Times, Tehran might have perceived the strike as a warning that Iran’s Caspian Sea coast is also under threat. The attack could serve as an additional leverage point for the US in negotiations with Iran.
Washington and Tehran have paused their daily mutual attacks, but the confrontation has not ended. Concurrently, Oman and Iran are engaged in negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz. According to the Associated Press, the parties are working on a deal concerning vessel transit.
The Caspian Sea is located over 960 kilometers from the main front line. However, Ukraine possesses long-range drones that it has previously used to attack Russian oil infrastructure.
Hamidreza Azizi, an expert at the SWP Berlin think tank, suggested several potential reasons for the strike. One theory is that Ukraine aims to demonstrate its value as a partner to the US, upon which its supply of critical weaponry, particularly Patriot systems, depends.
Another explanation is that the US and Israel might have been interested in intensifying pressure on Iran without directly striking its infrastructure.
A further reason could be a response to threats made by Iran-backed Houthis against vessels in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Previously, the Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea.
“The Caspian front, along with the Indian Ocean where the United States has imposed a naval blockade on Iran, should now complete the formation of an economic and military pressure ring around the country,” Azizi noted.
In response, Iran might attack Ukraine-related vessels on other maritime routes or Ukrainian infrastructure. Tehran could also recognize the occupied Crimea and Donbas as part of Russia.
According to Azizi, the confrontation surrounding Iran is increasingly intertwined with Russia’s war against Ukraine and the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.
Ukraine is already strengthening cooperation with Middle Eastern countries. In March, Kyiv signed a security agreement with Saudi Arabia, which includes transferring Ukrainian expertise in countering Iranian drones. Zelensky has also visited the UAE and Qatar to secure similar agreements.
The Caspian Sea has become a crucial supply route for Iran. According to the Wall Street Journal, Israel has previously attacked the Iranian port of Bandar-e Anzali amid reports of Russia supplying ammunition, drones, and other weaponry to Tehran.
What is known about the Caspian Sea attack
We remind you that the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs previously accused Ukraine of attacking an alleged Iranian “merchant ship” in the Caspian Sea and stated the possibility of “escalating the war.” Tehran called the incident an “act of aggression” while claiming that Iran had allegedly never interfered in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Later, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of attacking the vessel. He claimed it was carried out “on the orders of Israel.”
As we reported, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced **successful long-range strikes by the Defense Forces on military targets in Russia.** According to him, targets hit that night included an enterprise in Kirov, the Tyumen refinery, a logistics facility in Yekaterinburg, and a fuel depot in Rostov-on-Don. There were also mentions of targets in the Caspian Sea, specifically vessels involved in transporting military cargo from Iran, and a warship.
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