American analysts believe that Russia might indeed invade NATO countries, but with a limited contingent.
Kremlin. / © unsplash.com
The visit of the head of the American CIA, John Ratcliffe, to Moscow could indicate Russia’s preparation for aggression against a NATO country in the relatively near future.
This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Sources of Politico and the Wall Street Journal, “knowledgeable about the matter,” report that Ratcliffe warned the Russian Federation against attacking Alliance countries and against escalating the conflict with US allies, particularly Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
In turn, Institute analysts believe that the arrival of the CIA director in Moscow on a C-17 military transport aircraft and his use of an American motorcade suggest that Washington viewed the intelligence it possessed as urgent and confidential, not merely as a warning about a distant threat.
At the same time, ISW emphasizes, public reports on the US intelligence community’s assessments only state that Moscow’s actions are possible “within the next few years.” However, Ratcliffe’s mode of travel suggests concern about shorter timelines.
“The personal visit of the CIA director to convey a message is unusual and is typically reserved for sensitive matters of the highest importance,” emphasize American experts.
Threat from Russia
ISW notes that the threat from Russia, which America is trying to deter in 2026, differs significantly from the scenario of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
It is noted that the last trip of the CIA director to Moscow took place in November 2021, when William Burns attempted to deter Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, the context of Ratcliffe’s current visit is very different. Comparisons between the two visits, ISW notes, do not account for key differences.
Russian troops had already significantly built up equipment, personnel, and other military assets on the border with Ukraine in late 2021 and early 2022, preceding Russia’s full-scale invasion.
“ISW has not gathered any specific signs that Russia is preparing for a large-scale invasion of the Baltic states, nor have we observed any evidence of a similar large-scale buildup in Russia’s border zone with the Baltic states,” the report states.
However, Estonian and Latvian officials noted that their assessment of Russian threats has not changed. This suggests that these countries also do not observe a buildup of Russian forces on their borders.
“However, Russia could strike targets in the Baltic states or conduct a limited ground invasion with small forces. This type of attack would not necessarily require a significant, visible military buildup and therefore would not generate the indicators that analysts observed in 2021,” ISW stated.
At the same time, American analysts emphasize, it remains unclear whether “Führer” Vladimir Putin has ordered or approved any operations by Russian forces. However, Ratcliffe’s visit “is noteworthy and in itself indicates that the US has signs that the Russian Federation is preparing for an act of aggression sooner than just within ‘the next few years’.”
We remind you that ISW warned about the Kremlin’s dangerous plan regarding an attack on NATO countries. Russia, American analysts believe, could launch aerial, missile, or drone strikes or conduct a limited invasion of one or more Baltic states to test the Alliance’s readiness to invoke Article 5 and respond accordingly.
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